Grant Portfolio Evaluator

Rank and prioritize research funding opportunities with persistence-aware analysis (for entertainment only)

Created by James McInerney GitHub: mol-evol
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How This Framework Works

Grant writing is fundamentally different from gambling. You don't go bankrupt—you run out of time. And you must submit proposals repeatedly to eventually succeed. This evaluator recognizes that reality.

Key insight: Most proposals will be rejected. Success requires persistence. So we rank proposals by their effective commitment level—accounting for both how efficient they are AND how many times you're willing to resubmit. A high-value proposal you'd only submit once ranks lower than a medium-value proposal you'd iterate on multiple times.

The evaluator assigns each proposal to a tier—Core, Opportunistic, Exploratory, or Skip—based on efficiency and your realistic commitment.

hours/year
Research, teaching, admin, mentoring
% = 400 h/year
Your strategic choice for grant proposals
£ /hour
Szilard threshold: pursue if EV/hr exceeds this
Proposal 1
£2.5M
80h
20%
Honest estimate. Include competitive pressure.
1.0x
Relationship building, leadership visibility, downstream grants?
3
Total times you'd submit this (including the first attempt)
Proposal 2
£900k
60h
20%
Honest estimate. Include competitive pressure.
1.0x
Relationship building, leadership visibility, downstream grants?
3
Total times you'd submit this (including the first attempt)
Proposal 3
£50k
15h
25%
Honest estimate. Include competitive pressure.
1.0x
Relationship building, leadership visibility, downstream grants?
2
Total times you'd submit this (including the first attempt)
Click to manually update all results (auto-updates on input)
Portfolio Ranking Index: Proposals are ranked by effective commitment level—their value per hour per attempt, constrained by how many times you're actually willing to resubmit. A proposal you'll iterate 3 times ranks higher than one you'd only submit once, even if the per-attempt efficiency is lower.

Ranking by Effective Commitment

Portfolio Composition

Annual Time Allocation by Tier

Submission Strategy: Each proposal is assigned to a tier based on efficiency, strategic value, and your actual commitment level (max attempts). This determines your submission strategy.

Guide

What this tool does: It ranks your grant proposals by comparing their expected value per hour against your personal target threshold. Proposals that return ≥3× your target are "Core" (pursue aggressively), ≥1× are "Opportunistic" (worth doing), >0 are "Exploratory" (low priority), and zero or negative are "Skip".

How to Use It

Step 1: Set your target hourly value — What's your time worth? This is your threshold for deciding if a grant is worth pursuing. Consider what hourly rate makes grant-writing worthwhile.

Step 2: Set your time budget — How many hours per year can you allocate to grant writing? The tool uses this to check if your portfolio fits your capacity.

Step 3: Enter proposal details — For each grant: award amount, hours to write it, your estimated success probability, any strategic multiplier, and how many times you'd realistically submit.

Step 4: Read the results — Check the Submission Strategy tab for personalised guidance explaining exactly why each proposal got its tier.

Understanding the Tiers

Important: Tiers are based on the ratio of EV/hour to your target hourly value. The target is something you set — it's not a universal truth. A higher target means fewer proposals will qualify as Core; a lower target means more will. Adjust it to reflect what your time is genuinely worth to you.

Tier Ratio Threshold What It Means
CORE ≥ 3× your target Excellent return — at least 3× what you consider worthwhile. Pursue aggressively, resubmit if rejected.
OPPORTUNISTIC ≥ 1× your target Meets your threshold — worth your time. Submit, but don't over-invest in resubmissions.
EXPLORATORY ≥ 0.1× your target Below your threshold but not negligible. Submit once for learning or relationship-building.
SKIP < 0.1× your target Less than 10% of your threshold — not worth your time. Don't pursue.

The Formulas

Expected Value (EV) = Award × Probability
EV per Hour = EV ÷ Hours per submission
Ratio = EV per Hour ÷ Your target hourly value
Expected Attempts = 1 ÷ Probability
Effective Commitment = Min(Expected Attempts, Max Attempts)

Tips for Estimating Inputs

Success Probability

Be honest. Most grants have 10-25% success rates. Check funder statistics if available.

Consider: competition level, your track record with this funder, fit with their priorities.

Hours per Submission

Include everything: reading guidelines, drafting, revisions, gathering letters, admin.

Small grants: 10-30h. Standard grants: 40-80h. Large/complex: 100-500h+.

Strategic Multiplier

This captures intangible benefits beyond the money. A grant might be worth more than its face value if it brings prestige, visibility, or opens doors.

1.0× = money only. 1.5× = some added prestige/visibility. 2-3× = significant career or reputational benefit (e.g., a fellowship that signals leadership).

Max Attempts

Total times you'd submit this proposal, including the first attempt. 1 = one-shot only.

Be realistic — this affects your time budget. Don't say 5 if you'd actually quit after 2.

Remember

This tool helps you think systematically, but it's not a substitute for judgment. A "Skip" tier proposal might still be worth pursuing for reasons the model can't capture. Use the tiers as a starting point for prioritisation, not a rigid rule.